Future Challenges for Labour Market Policies in the German Länder from a Demographic Point of View
Content and Objective
Germany has for decades been subject to the largely uniform trend of the accelerating shrinking and ageing of the population. Working-age persons (aged 15 to 64) are also fundamentally affected by this, but regional particularities and differences can be observed in this age group which one may also presume for future developments. The question is hence significant in the interest of advising policy-makers as precisely as possible as to how this potential in terms of persons who are in gainful employment will develop at regional level in the future.
This project aimed to start by using the example of the Saarland (and in comparison to the Western German average) to carry out a calculation of what the future progression will be. This projection was based, firstly, on data from official statistics and on the Land results of the 11th Coordinated Population Forecast, and secondly on the prognosis model for the potential size of the labour force created by the Institute for Employment Research in Nuremberg. Combining the data made it possible to calculate the future potential in the Saarland in terms of persons who are in gainful employment in different variants. It was also intended to answer the question of how strong the impact of the individual components (presumptions on demographic development and on the work-related conduct of the population) will be on the future potential in terms of persons who are in gainful employment.
Dr. Johann Fuchs (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg)
Fuchs, Johann; Mai, Ralf; Micheel, Frank; Otto, Anne; Weber, Brigitte; Göttner, Denis (2009): Entwicklung des saarländischen Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis zum Jahr 2020 mit Ausblick bis 2050. Methoden, Annahmen und Datengrundlage. IAB-Forschungsbericht 06/2009. Nürnberg: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung