Hansjörg Bucher and Claus Schlömer (2006)
The Regional Population Forecast of the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning*
In: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 31, 3-4/2006, p. 345-364, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, ISSN: 0340-2398
For more than 20 years the spatial information system of the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning, known as the ongoing spatial monitoring system, has included an element which looks towards the future, namely the regional planning forecast. The information obtained from this element is to make it possible to estimate benchmark figures for future spatial trends. Two sub-models relate to demographic variables, to the population and to private households. In particular the population forecast acts in addition or indeed in competition to the work of other forecasters. The Office's population forecast is the only one which is carried out officially both nationally in all areas, and on a small scale (at district level). The spatial differentiation was a longer development process, receiving contributions from technical developments and – as a result of these – from the broader data basis of official statistics.
The results particularly make clear the spatial variety of demographic change, composed of the change in population dynamics, ageing and internationalisation. The Office's forecast is focussed on the first two elements. At least for the next two decades – as was already the case – there will be a juxtaposition of growing and shrinking municipalities and regions. Ageing will take place everywhere, albeit at differing intensities and with a great variety of causes.
* Original title: Die regionalisierte Bevölkerungsprognose des Bundesamtes für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (full text in German only)