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Nicholas B. Barkalov and Jürgen Dorbritz (2005)

European Parity-Progression-Patterns – Results of the Fertility and Family Survey (FFS)*

In: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 30, 2-3/2005, p. 175-218, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, ISSN: 0340-2398

Period parity-progression ratios are estimated under the age-parity measurement model for 16 out of 21 FFS national data samples, their reference periods being 5 calendar years preceding the survey. The remaining 5 data samples are rejected as clearly biased. To test statistical reliability of the estimates, analytic expressions for the standard errors are derived and supplemented numerically with a bootstrap resampling. The comparison study of so-obtained parity-progression schedules finds childlessness to be a single most important discriminating characteristic. In particular, a lower childlessness level is what essentially separates the former socialist East-European countries from the rest of Europe. The childlessness level of a synthetic cohort largely predetermines its dispersion by final parity, but seems to have little connection to the parity-progression ratios to a second or third child. An offered interpretation links childlessness to the prevailing attitudes toward marriage and the quality of association between marriage and fertility behavior.

* Original title: Europäische Paritäts-Progressions-Muster – Ergebnisse des Fertility and Family Survey FFS (full text in German only)

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