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Ralf Mai (2005)

Demographic Ageing in Germany – Trends from 1871 to 2050 and the Influence of Mortality and Immigration on Ageing*

In: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 30, 1/2005, p. 45-82, Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, ISSN: 0340-2398

The decline in mortality and the demographic ageing appear to be long-term trends in most states. Whilst the increase in life expectancy is a sign of desirable progress, demographic ageing however leads to a wide variety of problems. Knowing what should be done about future development trends is vital to the formulation of a suitable social reaction. Importance also attaches to the question of how great will be the fluctuation of future events. This article describes major trends in the dynamics of ageing in Germany and studies differences in processes by region (East-West) and over time (1871 to 2050). As well as trends, the age-specific differentiation, selected age-specific consequences and an international comparison are presented here. The concluding question is which age-structural effects a change in life expectancy and/or immigration would have on ageing.

* Original title: Demographische Alterung in Deutschland – Die Entwicklung von 1871 bis 2050 und der Einfluss von Sterblichkeit und Zuwanderung auf die Alterung (full text in German only)

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