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Erika Schulz (2002)

Impact of Demographic Change on the Population by Family Status – Development between 1991 and 1999 and Estimation for 2005*

In: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 27, 2/2002, p. 213-245, Opladen: Verlag Leske + Budrich, ISSN: 0340-2398

For most global policy fields population development is one of the key components. With respect to income tax yield or long-term care giving within families some additional information were required, especially the population by family status. This paper focuses on the development of population by family status between 1991 and 1999, on the method to forecast the population by family status and the results of this forecast. Between 1991 and 1999 there were a decrease in the share of married persons and an increase in the share of single persons. This postponement were greater in Eastern Germany than in Western Germany. The change between 1991 and 1999 can be divided into three components: the effect of changing age structure, the effect of changing behaviour and the effect of changing quantity (population level). It can be pointed out, that the change in behaviour was the most important effect. Especially in Eastern Germany an extreme change in marriage behaviour and in divorce behaviour can be observe.

With the basic information about the estimated population, the marriage rates, the divorces rates and the mortality rates by family status it is possible to compute the population by family status until 2005.Results of this forecast are, that the population will be nearly constant and that the shifting between the share of married and single persons will be continue. The number of persons aged 20 to 60 will be decline at 560.000. This persons pay the greatest part of the income tax yield. The increase in the share of single persons have the opposite effect. Especially the increase of single women aged 20 to 60 at 660.000 pushes this opposite effect, because the labour participation rate of single women is much more higher than of married women. In the older age groups the share of married persons will increase. Therefore the chance for informal long- term care giving from spouses will also increase.

* Original title: Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Familienstandsstruktur – Entwicklung 1991 bis 1999 und Vorausschätzungen bis 2005 (full text in German only)

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